Gold Chart: Price May Be Right, But Is Timing?

Feb 27 2013, 05:16  | 6 comments  |  includes: GLD

As mentioned likely in my previous article, "Gold Chart: Cyclically An Important Week In Gold", published on Monday, February 11TH, the two weeks of trading in the gold market since my article was published have proven to be of great interest to gold market participants worldwide, and gold market action has generated a lot of analysis, commentary and buzz.

The price of gold fell significantly these two weeks, trading down from around $160 on the GLD ETF to a low last week below $151, a fall of over 5.5%. Gold market bears took strong command during these weeks of trading, apparently bolstered by concerns with last spring's price weakness, relative strength that came into the dollar these weeks of this year, stabilization that also seemed to be occurring in treasury bonds, and the occurrence of no international financial or geopolitical upsets strong enough to prevent this 5.5% decline in gold's price.

Apparently,when gold broke the $158.5 on GLD two weeks ago, enough bulls started to capitulate, and they began pulling their bids in order to re-establish their efforts at lower levels in the following week. Threats of "sequestering" in the U.S. did little to prevent gold's decline, or fuel additional bullish demand, during this otherwise troubling two week period.

This week gold is trying to 'make a come back' from the last two weeks of strong seasonal 'February price finding.' In articles published this past weekend, other authors began to point out that in recent years February has proven to be either a price bottom or a price top going into the summer, and this year, February gold seems more like a price bottom than top. They may be correct; however, I would like to temper their risk-on enthusiasm by again mentioning that gold has a history of potentially greater volatility this time of year, and going into summers, than they may currently be crediting it with.

A closer look at May, the end of June, and the beginning of July during the last four years will bear this out. See the chart below.

So, regardless of whether or not the GLD $150 area provides support this year (it has since the end of 2011), I would tend to be cautious of a potential second wave of price weakness coming this year as we enter into May. Gold now appears to be fundamentally and cyclically primed to search again then for first half year momentum lows. Longer term risk-on positioning between now and then may have few rewards.

Last year is a good case in point. Between the beginning February 2012 and the beginning of May 2012, GLD lost about 10 points. Then from the beginning of May 2012 to the end of May 2012, GLD lost about another 10 points in a significant second price wave downward before heading sideways, and building up a genuine and corrective pre-launch stage for a significant price pivot and rally into fall.

Whether from lower lows, or from higher lows, I presently prefer to wait for this seasonal price down-pressure to clear before becoming potentially enthusiastic about a long position in gold going into the second half 2013. Waiting until about the beginning of July has been a very good annual risk-on and risk-management strategy for gold since July 2009.

GLD ETF: 4-Year Daily OHLC

(Click on chart to enlarge and click on chart again to zoom)