Looking closely at a daily action chart of the DIA, year to date, you can see the gap up on today's (Thursday 27 Oct) market. Many think this is a great sign. However, count back six months (April, also an earnings announcement month) and you will find your 'gap up' there also, and to levels that eventually could not be sustained by the downpressures of the next two months.
Now, count forward 3 months (a quarterly cycle from those two aforementioned downpressure months) and things become quite clearer yet. Note the descention into August and September from the prior March lows. Take that descention and parallel vector it from the toppiness in July (the last earning announcement month) and see that we haven't yet broken the wide channel downtrend yet, and are now knocking at and bucking along its top.
A 'counter-valent' uptrending beginning of November, being unlike the beginnings of the backecho August on the quarterly cycle, and the backecho May on the biquarterly cycle, from the current levels, would be encouraging. Price action like that which happened in FEB might start a change in persuasion of 'the broad and the smart' money.
Another significant challenge exists also... looking at the four year Presidential Cycle to the week, and understanding things started to collapse the beginning of November after a strong recovery October four years ago to a rather auspicious end in a year and a half later.
However, we are encouraged by this past week's action. Now, whether or not to apply insurance between $122.5 and $125, the topside of our strongest echochannel with this phase's broadest echoband . Months ago we calcualted $122.5 on the DIA and $59 on the QQQ (tech) as the 'strong upper range tops' within the 'no band breakout scenario'... However, the strength of this year's seasonal momentum has brought us this far and could bring us farther. But, for now, we strongly recomend the application of full net portfolio insurance in this 'plus $122 DIA equivalency area', and will wait to see if this area holds in the advent of this 'now fully here' vulnerable time periods of the strong Quarterly (QEV) , Bi-quarterly (2QEV), and Presidential Cycle EchoVector (PCEV) downpressures.
