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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

GOLDPIVOTS.COM ARTICLE: GLD ETF: Will Gold Start To Shine Again This Month? An EchoVector Price Analysis Perspective


Will Gold Start To Shine Again This Month? An EchoVector Price Analysis Perspective

 
This week three quarter ago I alerted the gold market to what then was a cyclically important week in gold. The two weeks of trading that followed proved to be of great interest to participants worldwide. The price of gold fell significantly, trading down from around $160 on the GLD ETF to a low just below $151, a fall of over 5.5%.
Then on February 27TH, When gold was bouncing off a seeming near-term bottom and many analyst where again filled with risk-on enthusiasm for the precious metal, I suggested that regardless of price level, a more prudent time to enter gold was closer to the end of June. See "Gold Chart: Price May Be Right, But Is Timing?"
On May 20th I also put out a third article on gold titled, "Gold Charts: Warning In February Still Valid Today" in which I warned that this year's seasonal down-pressure was still likely not over. The wisdom of February's article had become fully apparent by then, with gold prices down another 20%, and the GLD near $131.
In my May article I reiterated the importance of patiently waiting for the end of June to find a positive risk-reward re-entry time-point for gold. Another final leg down was forecast. As it ended up, it would have been hard for me to have been more correct, with gold falling further in June to a closing low on the GLD the week of June 27TH below $116.
This first half of 2013 did in fact prove to be an historic sell-off in gold prices. My model then indicated a strong buy signal on June 27TH, the week it was forecasted due in, which I had also published at my website, GOLDPIVOTS.com.
This week the GLD has risen from its June's lows to a high just above $129.50 and has been holding since at $127.50. And Gold is presently considered to have some favorable fundamentals working for its continued rise, not the least of which is seasonality. Also, unemployment in the US remains a chronic and unresolved problem, with an uncertain outlook, often positive for gold. Federal Reserve tapering issues still remain on-again off-again blurry, and a continuing dovish Fed monetary posture regardless remains likely, also positive for gold. Chinese gold buying remains strong (even though some headlines may suggest otherwise) with China likely becoming the largest gold purchaser in the world on an annual basis this year. Gold Mining stocks have also begun to rebound, which may be an indicator of better production cost to expected metals price ratios (which also makes miners particularly interesting as an alternate gold investment). The NUGT ETF this month is outperforming. And gold is still considered a viable hedge by some analyst against a correction in stock prices which some are anticipating sometime this fall, if not sooner.
The following chart updates my chart from February of the GLD ETF illustrating how waiting until about the beginning of July has been a very good annual risk-on risk-management strategy for gold since July 2009.
(Right click on the image of the chart to open in new tab. Left click on the image opened in the new tab to further zoom EchoVector Analysis chart image illustrations and highlights.)
Now, this week is particularly important for the gold metals going forward into August's primary option expiration, and also going forward into the three week's thereafter, from an EchoVector Analysis Perspective. Last year, the three weeks that followed options expiration proved particularly strong on relative price strength basis within an annual echovector perspective.
Zooming into this perspective on the chart below, we see (highlighted in red) the currently active annual echovector running to this week's current high on Monday from its coordinate echo-back-week high on the corresponding Monday one year ago. We also see this year's coordinate green extension vector (symmetrical to the prior four years) leaves prices additional room to rise from current levels -- a rise to the $135 price level on the GLD, before reaching parity. If prices hold up this week going into expiration, this may indicate gold might be staging for a nice price lift in the following weeks that could last well into mid-September.
(Right click on the image of the chart to open in new tab. Left click on the image opened in the new tab to further zoom EchoVector Analysis chart image illustrations and highlights.)
If gold does not hold up the next few day going into expiration, or little or no lift follows next week, we could see the annual echovector start to pivot downward again with gold potentially revisiting its summer lows in the near term. Regardless, it appears the risk-reward ratio to any risk-on position increases dramatically the week of primary options expiration in September on an annual echovector perspective basis.
Will gold break out above the $130 level and start to shine again this month, and continue to shine on into early fall as well? A fundamental argument can be made, and technical support may also be forming. However, this week's and next week's market price action would seem critical to this effort, particularly from an annual echovector analysis perspective.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in GLDDGPUGLDNUGTGTUIAU over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
This article is tagged with: Gold & Precious Metals

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