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ANALYSIS, ALERTS, OTAPS SIGNALS, CHART ILLUSTRATIONS, AND COMMENTARY

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Is This Week's Dramatic US Equities Market Sell-off Just Another Year 2014 Routine Futures Expiration Related Quarterly Price Level Consolidation Echo?

Wednesday, December 10, 2014 3:30 PM EST


MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: MINING THE PRICE PATTERN AND DYNAMICS:  US Large Cap Stock Composite Index Market Watch: /ES Emini Futures Proxy Instrument: Current EchoVector Pivot Point Analysis Perspective And Forecast Trade Opportunity Scenario and Strategy Setup For December 2014 Week 49 :  Base Double-Double Ultras Signal Approach  and Advanced Derivatives Strategy Signal Approach Compliments: EchoVector Analysis Active Advanced Position Management Trader's Edge Signal FrameCharts And Price Path GuideMaps With OTAPS-PPS Position Polarity Open/Cover/And Switch Signal Time-Price Extension Vectors Included
Kevin Wilbur, Chief Market Strategist And Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist
Market Alpha Brand Newsletters Group, PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST
Wednesday, December 10, 2014

SUMMARY
  • Many fundamental issues globally and domestically have arisen that might force the Santa Claus rally into an early untimely end..
  • Has this week's sell-off presented a real challenge to higher highs before year's end?.
  • Probably not. Each quarter this year we have experienced a similar futures oriented price consolidation week associated with approaching expiration.
ARTICLE

Since last Friday's close, the S&P500 has lost about 2 percent. This past mid-November's key options expiration Friday price momentum high, which occurred about 2 and a half weeks ago (on 11/21/14) had set observable resistance to US large cap equities along a very slightly inclined positive trading channel. The market seemingly bump along topside resistance within this channel six of the last ten days leading into this past Friday's (futures traded on Thanksgiving) strong close.
There has been much talk of an extended Christmas rally into the new year. Some analysts have been calling for further gains, and this seemed a prevalent theme going into this past weekend. However, this theme appears to have met a challenge, with this week's significant sell-off.
Why the sell-off? The headlines are full of reasons. The Chinese market appears under pressure. OPEC is taking US shale production and market share head on, pressuring the global economy. European market woes remain. Some think the FRB may be closer to raising interest rates than expected as the dollar runs. Commodity deflation is pounding energy and commodity based stocks. Smart, demanding, and apparently cautious Christmas shoppers (now aware of strong after-Christmas sales) are abound. And a seemingly already over-extended equities rally, by historical standards, is on many analysts minds.
So, how seriously should investors and trader's take this week's sudden plunge in prices? And will prices get worse before they get better? Has the best Santa has to offer the stock market this season already occurred?
These are interesting questions, yet very difficult ones to answer with any certainty. At this juncture I would instead prefer to simply bring another recognition, and perspective, to the many accounts being offered for this week's market sell-off, a perspective that may brighten the coming season for near-term bulls, and give shorts some pause in betting the house, just yet anyway. I believe we may be experiencing what has become, this year, a simple routine technical sell-off, with rather routine and forecast-able timing and extension, associated with quarterly futures (and ensuing FOMC announcements). I call the phenomena the start of "Futures Expiration Price Consolidation Week Echo."
Let's take a look at the following framecharts of the S&P500 /ES emini futures highlighting this phenomena. The framecharts picture the phenomena within a very useful and illustrative time cycle price momentum echovector analysis and contextual overlay. Each of framechart is basically the same chart, just presented in different frame zooms and perspectives.
(click to enlarge)
 (click to enlarge)
 (click to enlarge)

The first framechart above highlights the coordination between this Monday's morning high with corresponding Mondays 1.2,3 and 4 quarters ago. It also highlights the preceding Friday close (green arrow) for each. And it depicts the time cycle price momentum echovector and its slope, and the ensuing extension vector (in pink) into the following week's Friday's close for each quarterly Monday highlighted. The coordination and symmetry unveiled is striking, particularly when reviewing the annul echovector's echo-back time cycle price momentum echovector parallelogram illustrated, and yesterday's low.
The second framechart above zooms the first, with focus on the bi-quarterly and quarterly cycle echovector parallelograms active. It is a bi-hourly OHLC perspective and presents the echovector coordination with even greater detail.
The third framechart is very informative as well, and illustrates how the current annual echovector is running consistent with and parallel with the presidential cycle echovector and its coordinate echo-back-date in September of the same week. The bull market since then remains on trajectory, and appears technically still quite healthy, at least from this perspective.
Summarizing, this week, so far, has performed right on target within an echovector pivot point forecast and analysis, and presented a great active advanced position management opportunity to both short-term shorts and short-term long day-traders, and for swing-traders with simple few-day time horizon's, and was fully predicable within the right analytic framework.
Stronger concern for a sell-off, one that could genuinely dampen the Santa Claus rally, will begin if we have over-extension in the annual coordinate forecast echovector this week or discordant weakness in the market next week and beyond.  Protection becomes warrant if market prices pierce the key active annual echovector 's coordinate forecast echovector's OTAPS-PPS* active advanced management position polarity switch signal vector target price support threshold emanating from Monday, December 16, 2013's low. However, if this year's pattern remains intact, later this week or the first half of next week could prove to be an excellent opportunity to again become net long.
During this important season and key time period, my suggestion is to remain alert and nimble, and to be ready to take advantage of both cyclical echovector pivot point long opportunities as well as advantage of potential echovector pivot point short opportunities, while also remaining protected with effective stops.  And, to the more advanced trader, I would suggest even being tactically ready, in the event of relative counter-cyclical occurances, and to have order protocals already constructed and inputted that would readily trigger position polarity reversals as coming market price action dictated.  
One way to accomplish this would be to set up an active and adjustable OTAPS-PPS position polarity switch and straddle to manage your gold or silver metals market exposure to any potential changes in the price level momentum with regard to your targets and forward outlook. Setting straddles at momentum echovector switch level prices is an effective and opportune measure and advanced trade and position management strategy.One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the SPY and/or related ETFs or Ultras.  By setting up an advanced trade technology (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") at, for example, $203 on the SPY, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below this example target price switch level ($203 on the SPY) pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action.

To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above the target price switch level ($203 on the SPY) pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.

This week and early next week may be a very good time to employ this market straddle and this more advanced trade technology switch and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing the current echovector analysis framecharts of the S&P500 US Large Cap Stock Composite Index and its related markets. 

Thanks for reading.  Happy Holidays. And Godspeed in your investing.

Disclosure: The author is short SPY. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses his own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure:  This is a short-term net short bear debit put spread initiated Monday already well in the money, with cover on the BTO side planned this week.

CONTRIBUTOR
Contributor, Market Alpha Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And Senior EchoVector Analyst 
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.
Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.

For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".

For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".

See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.

DISCLAIMER
This post is for information purposes only.
There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections presented or discussed by PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS.
There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS will be achieved.
NO content published by us on the Site, our Blog, and any Social Media we engage in constitutes a recommendation that any particular investment strategy, security, portfolio of securities, or transaction is suitable for any specific person. Further understand that none of our bloggers, information providers, App providers, or their affiliates are advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter.
Again, this post is for information purposes only.

Before making any investment decisions we recommend you first consult with you personal financial adviser.





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