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ANALYSIS, ALERTS, OTAPS SIGNALS, CHART ILLUSTRATIONS, AND COMMENTARY
Thursday, April 3, 2014
DIA OTAPS WITH LFOUR OTAPS 165.60 RIGHT ON TARGET: MAJOR ALERT: QUARTERLY CYCLE AND PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ECHOVECTOR DOWNPRESSURE ALERT
This coming week marks significant price pressure and relative strength vulnerability on a quarterly cycle echovector basis in the large cap composite equities markets.
Capital gain lock and hedging strategies may now be timely.
Position polarity reversal strategy considerations may also now be due for more aggressive and actively managed participants.
Capital gain lock and hedging strategies may now be timely.
Position polarity reversal strategy considerations may also now be due for more aggressive and actively managed participants.
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
EMERGINGMARKETPIVOTS.COM: TRADER'S EDGE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHART UPDATES: OTAPS-PPS: RIGHT ON TARGET
TRADER'S EDGE ECHOVECTOR ANAYSIS FRAMECHART ABBREVIATED COLOR CODE GUIDE
(QUICK-CODE GUIDE)
eem etf 5-year weekly ohlc with select pcev, 3aev, ccev, and aev perspectives highlighted and illustrated
eem etf 5-year weekly ohlc with select pcev, 3aev, ccev, aev, 2qev, and qev perspectives highlighted and illustrated
GOLDPIVOTS.COM AND SILVERPIVOTS.COM AND COMMODITYPIVOTS.COM: /YI SILVER FUTURES FRAMECHART UPDATE: RIGHT AS FORECAST RIGHT ON TARGET: ALERT REITERATION: MAJOR OTAPS-PPS ALERT
TRADER'S EDGE ECHOVECTOR ANAYSIS FRAMECHART ABBREVIATED COLOR CODE GUIDE
(QUICK-CODE GUIDE)
/yi silver emini futures 5-year daily ohlc
/yi silver emini futures 2-year daily ohlc zoom
/yi silver emini futures 1-year daily ohlc zoom
OILPIVOTS.COM: ALERT REITERATION: QUARTERLY, ANNUAL, CONGRESSIONAL, AND PRESIDENTIAL: MAJOR OTAPS-PPS ALERT: RIGHT ON TARGET
TRADER'S EDGE ECHOVECTOR ANAYSIS FRAMECHART ABBREVIATED COLOR CODE GUIDE
(QUICK-CODE GUIDE)
/QM CRUDE OIL EMINI FUTURES 5-YEAR DAILY OHLC
/QM CRUDE OIL EMINI FUTURES 4-YEAR DAILY OHLC
/QM CRUDE OIL EMINI FUTURES 2-YEAR DAILY OHLC WITH SELECT CCEV, AEV, 3QEV, 2QEV, AND QEV ECHOVECTORS HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED
BONDPIVOTS.COM: ALERT REITERATION: KEY SUPPORT: QUARTERLY: MAJOR OTAPS-PPS ALERT: RIGHT ON TARGET: /ZB FUTURES FRAMECHART UPDATE
TRADER'S EDGE ECHOVECTOR ANAYSIS FRAMECHART ABBREVIATED COLOR CODE GUIDE
(QUICK-CODE GUIDE)
/ZB FUTURES 8-YEAR REGIME CHANGE CYCLE: WHITE
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Friday, March 28, 2014
BONDPIVOTS.COM: Treasury Long Bonds: TLT ETF: This Week's Alert and Article's EchcoVector Analysis FrameChart Update: TLT ETF ProxyChart: POWERFUL SETUP AND RESULTS THIS WEEK FROM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS ARTICLE ALERT ON TREASURY LONG BOND MARKET AND ACTIVE OTAPS-PPS ADVANCED POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: 600% GAINS ON SIMPLE APRIL CALL EV-OTAPS-PPS LEVEL 1 ACTIVE POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND EXECUTION: UPDATE 300PM DST FRIDAY 28 MARCH 2014
Treasury Long Bond Bulls Celebrate This Week's Key Gains
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Summary
- In last Wednesday's FOMC Statement, the Federal Reserve Bank announced further tapering its bond buying program by $10 billion per month, to $55 billion.
- Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen also surprised the markets last week by hinting that a hike in the Fed's prime lending rate might begin sooner than expected.
- Last week's report on the Conference Board Leading Economic Index stated the LEI increased .5% in February, indicating increased economic activity and demand for money may be on the way.
- Yesterday provided key technical support to long bond prices as prices pushed up into a key price resistance level that has stalled further gains for over half a year.
- Long bond prices could break out to the upside.
In last week's FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve indicated it will be further tapering its bond buying program by $10 billion per month, a reduction to $55 billion. Also, in her own statement last week, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen surprised the markets by hinting that the Federal Reserve Bank may also begin to raise its prime lending rate six months sooner than most bankers and market analysts had expected.
In addition to these changes at the Fed, last week The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, the LEI, was reported to have increased .5% overall in February. This overall increase in the LEI, along with its current sector by sector balance, indicate that an increase in economic activity may be on its way in several months. Increased economic activity often spurs the demand for money, which also tends to put upward pressure on interest rates, ceteris paribus. This too could impact bond market prices, possibly adding pressure instead to the downside.
After spending several days digesting this important fundamental news, the long bond market rallied strongly on Friday, and is now challenging key technical resistance this midweek. Resistance occurs in the $109 price area measured by the popular iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond TLT ETF. Yesterday's TLT closing price was $109.44.
Long bonds have failed to rallying past this key resistance level in four attempts since late July last year. Yesterday's positive bond market price action was critical support for bond market bulls. The long bond may now be ready to break out from this key resistance level and begin a run to the upside.
Yesterday's positive price action included upside momentum in many of the key bond market cycles followed by traders and investors. In some cycles, it also included additional upside price momentum pivoting as well. The important weekly cycle, the monthly cycle, the two-month cycle, the quarterly cycle, the annual cycle, the two-year congressional cycle, and the four-year presidential cycle are each currently projecting positive upside price momentum going forward. Holding gains above the $109 level the remainder of this week, and into next Wednesday, would be a very positive setup for the long bond.
Yesterday's strong and timely price action, and its positive directional implications for long bond market prices, especially within the popularly watched and traded quarterly cycle, are highlighted in the charts that follow.
TLT ETF 3-month Hourly OHLC Quarterly Perspective
- With Quarterly Cycle EchoVector (White)
- Bi-Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
- Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Peach)
- Tri-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Grey)
- Bi-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
- Weekly Cycle EchoVector (White)
(click to enlarge)
TLT ETF zoom of the chart above to show the 1-month hourly OHLC perspective and other weekly cycle perspectives within the current quarterly cycle of the chart.
(click to enlarge)
To view the longer annual cycle, congressional cycle, and presidential cycle perspectives, which highlight how bond prices are coming into positive price uplift periods in each, see this past Monday's article titled "Long Bond Treasury Cycles, Current Price Resistance And Fed Chairman Yellen's Comment Impact."
Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.
Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analyst
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST
Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.
Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.
For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".
For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".
See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF: POWERFUL SETUP AND RESULTS THIS WEEK FROM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS ARTICLE ALERT ON TREASURY LONG BOND MARKET AND ACTIVE OTAPS-PPS ADVANCED POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: 420% GAINS ON SIMPLE APRIL CALL EV-OTAPS-PPS LEVEL 1 ACTIVE POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND EXECUTION
TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 235PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM
Critical support came in as focused today on WEV yielding strong wev and qev pivot with upside bias forward now firming -- in this key zoom inflection point area. See article below. Treasury long bond bulls celebrating today looking forward.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1250PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM
tlt etf 1220 PM dst 1-week 5-minute ohlc wev perspective
1228
1246
1250
ZOOM REFRESH
1228
1246
1250
ZOOM REFRESH
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ECHOVECTOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ASSOCIATION
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1250PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM
AMRH: American Market Regular Hours
MBH: Morning Block High (Price)
1228
1246
1250
ZOOM REFRESH
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF KEY WEV FORWARD ECHOPERIOD WATCH IN EFFECT: DT & STST BASIS
2ND phase 200 to 225
FIOP Off last week's Wednesday pre- and post- FOMC Statement
PRICE LEVEL MAINTANCE INSTEAD OF ECHO PRICE FALLOFF IN THESE PERIODS, AND ECHO-DIVERGENCE, WOULD GENERATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE UPSIDE PIVOT PRICE POTENTIAL ON WEV BASIS
WEV SYMMETRY TRANSPOSITION BIAS IS FOR RELATIVE PRICE WEAKENING IN THIS PERIOD
COUNTERVALENT PRICE EXTENSION RELATIVE STRENGTH TO ECHO EXTENSION WOULD PRODUCE WEV UPSIDE PIVOT AND CORRESPONDING EXTRAPOLATED POTENTIAL FOLLOWTHROUGH FORWARD
DT: DAY-TRADING
STST: SHORT-TERM SWING-TRADING
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1207PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM
tlt etf 1207am dst 1-week 5-minute ohlc wev perspective
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1137AM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM
tlt etf 1137am dst 1-month 15-minute ohlc mev with 3wev, 2wev, and wev perspectives included.
DT & STST TRADENOTE ALERT: LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL WEV UP-PRESSURE TO POTENTIALLY BUILD IN PM IF POST 1130AM EBDTPP ECHO-WEAKNESS FROM LAST WEDNESDAY DOES NOT RECUR, OR DOES NOT RECUR IN FULL EXTENT
tle etf 1128am dst 3-month hourly ohlc qev with mev, 3wev, 2wev, and wev perspectives included.
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014
TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1000AM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM
ECHOVECTOR FRAMECHART ABBREVIATED COLOR CODE GUIDE
(QUICK-CODE GUIDE)
16-YEAR MATURITY CYCLE ECHOVECTORS: PEACH
8-YEAR REGIME CHANGE CYCLE ECHOVECTORS: AQUA-BLUE
4-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ECHOVECTORS: WHITE
2-YEAR CONGRESSIONAL CYCLE ECHOVECTORS: YELLOW, AQUA-BLUE
ANNUAL ECHOVECTORS: WHITE, RED, GREEN
BI-QUARTERLY ECHOVECTORS: YELLOW, AQUA-BLUE
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Monday, March 24, 2014
Treasury Long Bond Cycles And Current Price Resistance Levels, And Fed Chairman Yellen's Recent Comment On The Interest Rate Hike Time Table And Its Potential Impact On The Long Bond Market
Monday, March 24, 2014 Updated Version
This coming week is sure to be a significant week in the long bond market on this score, as we once again challenge this resistance after the Fed Chairman's comments last week. In this analysis, I will highlight these four primary Cyclical EchoVector Perspectives for their forward trading implications. In additional charts I'll also note the shorter Bi-Monthly Cycle EchoVector and the Monthly Cycle EchoVectors and consider their potential pivot point projections as well.
Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.
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