Apr 30, 2012 11:03 PM
A Current USO ETF EchoVector And EchoBackDate Price Analysis: Is Seasonal Price History Unfolding Again?
April 29, 2012 2:35 PM
Recently there has been a tremendous amount of interest and much media attention given to the energy markets, and particularly to the markets for crude oil and gasoline.
The seasonal February-through-April 'price strength period' unfolded and manifested itself once again this year, and with usual its usual price vigor.
Provided below is a chart with an excellent graphical illustration of this year's 'price seasonalities' in the USO ETF.
Also shown and marked on the chart are the many regular and repeating annual price 'ebbs and flows' experienced in the USO ETF the last several years.
A close examination of the chart may significantly aid the portfolio manager, and the trader, in their management of USO ETF positions, analysis, and reasoned forecasts, and perhaps also with other USO-related ETF's and commodity futures and indexes. Especially if their analysis includes or emphasizes seasonal and historical conditions and price patterns... and relevant echovectors.
Following the USO ETF price chart below I have listed some 'suggestive analytical perspectives', and some key 'notes of interest'.
Upon review of this chart and its technical indications, prepared caution in the near-term regarding the USO ETF's present price level, and going forward the next several weeks, may well be in order.
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USO ETF Chart
4-Year Weekly OHLC Chart
With Key Active Annual EchoVectors And Annual EchoBackWeeks's Highlighted:
(Click on chart and click again to enlarge and zoom)
On Chart Above: Suggestive Analytics and Key Notes of Interest:
1. Be aware of month 4 in the Annual and Bi-Annual Cycles
2. Note first 3 weeks of month 5.
3. Note the 'price level low' of the first week of May, and how it proves to be 'around top or close to sell-down price level,' occurring at end of July and beginning of August's 'mid-2/-3rd week's summer top.'
4. Be aware of momentum reversal at the end of September and the beginning of October, after downside price consolidation.
5. Be aware of the 'about one quarter earlier in time' momentum bottom occurring at the end of June/early July. Note that reversal is good for first month, of three subsequent months, leading to October, and failing around beginning of August. This forms a cone with June/July and September/October bottoms with an August 'pointed top'.
6. In our view, these are significant seasonal relative strength reversal periods and indicators. EchoVectors and EchoVector EchoBackDates are significant in the analysis, forecast, and current price and price level measurements here.
7. Note the importance of week 6 low and the week 9 high, and sell-off from week 9 to week 11, in the 'Winter Quarter EchoVector (following the prior fall and summer quarterly weekly High and Low weekly momentum pattern deltas, within a quarterly and bi-quarterly echovector and echobackvector analysis, focusing on key echobackweek highs and lows.
Within your own working analytic frame, retopologize the 3-Year OHLC daily price action charts for further definition and precision revelation, and then retopologize those further to 'hourly intra-day and further discrete price action for even further 'resolution and revelation'. Then overlay this data with regular announcement schedule information, special inventory and/or production announcement information occurrences, and further with related macro-event impacting announcements... all for increased and even further definition, forecast, and management insight and effectiveness.
Disclosure: I am short USO.
Themes: etf-analysis
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