- LOOKING AT THE S&P500 US STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX OVER THE LAST SIX PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES: THIS JUNE AND JULY 2015 ARE VERY IMPORTANT MONTHS FORWARD FOR THE US EQUITIES MARKETS FROM AN AGGREGATE TIME CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT PRICE ANALYSIS PERSECTIVE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE 4-YEAR ECHOVECTOR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE, THE 8-YEAR ECHOVECTOR REGIME CHANGE CYCLE, AND THE 16-YEAR ECHOVECTOR MATURITY CYCLE PERSPECTIVES, AND THEIR AGGREGATION.
- NOW MAY BE A PRUDENT TIME TO PUT IN PLACE, AND EMPLOY, DYNAMIC, ACTIVE AND ADJUSTABLE STRADDLING POSITIONS IN KEY US EQUITY LARGE CAP COMPOSITE INDEXES IN ORDER TO LOCK IN GAINS FROM MARCH 2009 LOWS, AND TO BETTER MANAGE EXPOSURE TO GENERAL MARKET PIRCE LEVEL CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION THAT MAY SOON BE PROMPTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK ACTION AND KEY LONGER-TERM MARKET TIMING CYCLICALITIES APPARENT IN MAJOR US STOCK MARKET COMPOSITE INDEXES.
ARTICLE
On June 22ND summer will officially be here. A big question facing US stock "market meteorologists" this year, this month, and this coming week is "weather" or not the US Federal Reserve is going to continue its "warm and cozy" consumer-friendly and historically low interest rate posture through this summer and beyond, or "weather" it is actually going to possibly bring a "market chill" with a change in its prime lending rate, which so very many market watchers, market analysts, market pundits and market mavens have recently and vigorously (and seemingly endlessly) been discussing, with an actual FRB prime interest rate hike cycle start.
Since my key article on August 1ST of 2012 titled, "Don't Fight The Fed", I've remained predominantly expositionally silent on this matter, and focused attention primarily on what has proven to be extremely timely and highly profitable technical forecasting alerts issued throughout last year and so far again this year.
And last year's well-forecasted time cycle price momentum echovector pivot point analysis market movements have proven powerfully efficacious and opportune for any practicing active advanced position and risk management methodologist who has followed this work and incorporated it in their analytic approach within their overall forecast, timing, and position management matrix.
Last year I warned for protection on the July highs, noting little advantage in holding long going into a forecasted fall melt (and suggested being ready to be reverse to capture positive associated extension on the short side). I also warned that this melt would be met by a bounce to further highs into winter and spring this year, viewing this last bounce as the end game (and the last intermediately significant majority payoff within the 8-year echovector regime change cycle, the 4-year echovector presidential cycle, with likely little but possible upside extended cone 'topping' left remaining on the 16-year echovector maturity cycle.
Last year's powerfully effective technical forecast, presenting these well-framed and mentioned market price dynamics, were presented as early as last March. See Benzinga article titled, "The American Political Economic Cycle And The Current Melt-Up in Stocks: A Powerfully Revealing EchoVector Analysis of the Current 5-Year Bull Market In Stocks And An Update Of The Article 'Don't Fight The Fed'. " The following framechart and exposition is a key excerpt from this article, and highlights great insight into last year's powerful forecast and its subsequent effective position management and strategy guidance through the remainder of the year:
"A LOOK AT THE LAST THREE US PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONS' POST MIDTERM ELECTION MELT-UPS IN STOCKS
Let's begin by looking at the following 20-year price track of the S&P 500 Composite Stock Index as reflected a proxy chart of the popular /ES E-mini Futures on that index.
"In the chart above note the key white 16-year market financial cycle echovector running from The April 1, 1997, the echobackdate and year following the Clinton Administration mid-term election year, to the April 1 2005 echobackdate and year following the Bush Administration mid-term election year, to the April 1 2013 echovector start date, and year following the Obama Administration mid-term election year.
Notice also the general horizontal price resistance level highlighted in white running from the Clinton Regime's price level toppiness in year 2000 to the Bush Regime price level toppiness in year 2007 to the late spring and summer time sell in May and go away period of the Obama Regime in 2013.
It was in the Federal Reserve Bank's genuine interest, and in The Federal Reserve Bank Chairman's focus, his specialty, and his legacy interest, to prevent another market collapse reminiscent of 2008 or 2001-2002, and this seasonal price pressure weakness from accelerating into a more precarious market price phenomena and political economic market cycle echo. And the central bank's ensuing coordinated efforts to place a bridge under stock market prices that summer could not have been more effective nor better timed for this purpose.
The bridge in place, and holding well into November, and that month's returning annual and congressional cycle lows kicking in, with them occurring at these upper and bridged supported price levels, set the stage for significantly better price level momentum trajectory than otherwise, and eventual price level resistance breakthrough and price melt-up, in lieu of price level collapse. Whereas these last three regime mid-term election years appear characterized by little price progress going into July after their first quarter highs, the year that follows, being year 5 in the existing administration's regime change cycle, holds onto momentum price gains on both a year-over-year basis and on a 2-year congressional cycle basis. The latter being even stronger, accelerating prices even further and propelling them into melt-up. This effect was anticipated in my article of August 2012, and has been central to my positive market forecast since."
This year's shorter term perspective echovector analysis forecasting, using the key active and subsumptive congressional cycle echovectors (CCEVs), annual cycle echovectors (AEVs), bi-quarterly cycle echovectors (2QEVs), quarterly cycle echovectors (QEVs), Monthly cycle echovectors (MEVs) biweekly cycle echovectors (2WEVs) weekly cycle echovectors (WEVs), and the one and two day cycle echovectors, and their coordinate subsumptions and convergences, and their subsequent aggregated price pressure magnitude and directional key inflection points, have proven again to be very price motion dynamics and forecast effective, and powerfully position opportunity and capital gain capturing generative, and further highly productive in their contributions to active advanced pivot point forecasting and risk management , occurring within the MDPP Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm and the ProtectVest and AdvanceVest Active Advanced Position and Risk Management Regime. As forecast in these perspectives and scopes, prices have moved little since last year's end year high close to 2100 on the SPX, and the market has moved quite orderly and forecastibly within an informed and attendant trader's dream.
See "THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER, FREE ONLINE VERSION," for current and ongoing updates on these shorter-term forecast scopes, perspectives, and opportunity and strategy setups, framecharts, and active advanced position management guidemaps, all presented in virtual and tutorial formats online free. However, this next month, and its key time cycle price momentum echovector inflection point clusters and subsequent potential forecast echovector rotation measurements are too important to fail to bring to additional traders' and researchers' attentions, and to fail to highlight across the Market-Pivots.com and The Market Alpha Newsletters Group communities, and associated market and research information distribution channels. See the echovector analysis framechart below.
SATURDAY 13 JUNE 2015 UPDATE: POWERFUL FORECAST RIGHT ON TARGET: SPYPIVOTS.COM ECHOVECTOR FOCUS FRAMECHART (ZOOMED) SPX US COMPOSITE MARKET SECTOR PROXY SPX S&P 500 US LARGE CAP STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX PROXYCHART TIME CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT PRICE PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS FRAMECHARTS: KEY ACTIVE MCEV, RCCEV, PCEV, AND CCEV AND RELATED EBDs AND KEY NPPVs AND OTAPS-PPSSVs (CONSTRUCTION 1) HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED SPX ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANLYSIS FOCUS FORECAST FRAMECHART 20-YEAR OHLC TIME/PRICE PERSPECTIVE (RIGHT CLICK ON FRAMECHART TO OPEN IN NEW TAB, THEN LEFT CLICK ON FRAMECHART TO FURTHER ENLARGE)
TIME CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT PRICE PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS FrameChart
20-YEAR OHLC TIME/PRICE PERSPECTIVE
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