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Tuesday, June 17, 2014








Tuesday, August 20, 2013


THE OTAPS-PPS TRADE POSITION SWITCH AND ACTIVE POSITION MANAGEMENT SIGNAL AND ADVANCED RISK MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY
OTAPS-PPS "The On/Off/Through Vector Target Application Price Switch" - "The Position Polarity Switch" Signal Vector and Signal Vector Cluster

The OTAPS target price position polarity switch, the OTAPS active position management signal, and the OTAPS position polarity switch signal vector and signal vector cluster, and the OTAPS position management methodology, were invented (and discovered) by advanced price theorist and behavioral economist Kevin John Bradford Wilbur.

The OTAPS Position Management System is intended as a contribution to active securities position management practitioners operating in the fields of securities and investment portfolio management and in portfolio risk management.

OTAPS is an 'acronym of abbreviation' that stands for "On-Off-Through-Vector-Target-Application-Price-Switch."  The OTAPS switch is a trade tool and position management and risk-management utility for enhancing focus instrument position value within an active risk management and responsive position management  trading regime.

Other references to the trade switch include, but are not limited to: 

OOTVTAPS:  On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch, 
OOTV:  On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch,
OOTVATPS:  On-Off-Through Vector Application Target Price Switch Straddle,
ATPSS:  On-Off-Through Vector Application Target Price Switch Straddle.
OTAPS-PPS: On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch and Position Polarity Switch Signal

Each reference, however, represent the same mathematical formula and financial construct and entity, and refers to the same applied position management and risk-management methodology and technology in which it is used and is publicly discussed.

The most popular acronym, OTAPS, was coined by the inventor of the OTAPS trend and risk-management tool and directional positioning switch, and has subsequently become the most popular and broadly used reference and name for the trade switch.  

See http://echovectorvest.blogspot.com/2012/05/on-off-through-vector-target.html.

Related references are:

OTAPS-PPSV: On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch and Position Polarity Switch Signal Vector
OTAPS-PPSEV: On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch and Position Polarity Switch Signal Extension Vector
OTAPS-PPSV: On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch and Position Polarity Switch Signal Vector Cluster

Today's relatively highly volatile and fast moving securities market, and its current historically low effective trade execution costs (commissions) is a market environment and current structure particularly favorable to the application of the OTAPS Position Management System. The system utilizes an advanced straddling technique applied at key forecast price levels at critical time junctures with respect to mined and identified historical price pattern symmetries in order to protect gains and to further optimize an actively managed securities' overall price path pattern related and realized returns.

OTAPS signal price levels are generated by the applied forecast model.  An OTAPS switch is then constructed from the OTAPS price level signal upon which the switch then becomes based during its time application.  Base switch levels are set, and often carry with them a series of related upper band and lower band accompanying price switch levels than may also be pre-programmed and additionally employable when met by the market price.  These UB and LB OTAPS switches the accompany the issued primary switch price and target application switch price level remain active also until adjusted.

HOW THE OTAPS SWITCH WORKS

The OTAPS switch is essentially an advanced 'directional and approached-sensitive' and 'flexible' two-sided price straddling mechanism that allows a position 'positivise' in a particular 'price motion direction' to be either 'turned on or tuned off' relative to the 'found price motion direction' occurring in the 'subject security', while also allowing the 'opposite polarity position' to be 'turned on or off' relative to the same price motion occurrence, or any subsequent price motion occurrence, that might move prices to and through the issued target application price switch price level.

For examples of the OTAPS switch in application see articles,

1.  "Don't Fight The Fed"

"...  In this market environment, we suggest the employment of active and adjustable echovector bridge-based straddling positions to manage stock market exposure to changes in the general price levels. Setting straddles at these bridge levels on their relevant time basis is an effective and opportune measure and advanced trade strategy. Such an approach is particularly well-tailored to and could prove very valuable in engaging and effectively managing these market situations going forward into the presidential elections this fall and thereafter, regardless of what the Fed may or may not say or do in the meantime.
One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the SPY ETF and/or the DIA ETF. By setting up an advanced trade technology (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch")at, for example, $136 on the SPY or at $128.5 on the DIA, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below either of these mentioned target price switch levels (e.g., $136 on the SPY and/or $128.5 on the DIA) pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse downtick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action. To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above either of these target price switch levels ($136 on the SPY and/or $128.5 on the DIA) pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse downtick down-through action.
Now may be a very good time to employ this general market straddle and this more advanced trade technology and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing the chart of the S&P 500 over the past four years within the current presidential cycle."
2.  "Could This Be A Correction That's Coming? An EchoVector Pivot Point Perspective"

"... The stock market has been particularly resilient in its ability to come back from price down-pressure this year. This phase of the 8-year regime change cycle bodes well for the market from levels established in mid-April going into next year. A good chart of the SPX illustrating this phenomena the last 20 years can be viewed at my SeekingAlpha posts by clicking here. For this reason my general bias remains primarily positive. However, "Don't Fight The Fed" remains in force, and if the Fed begins the process of a relative de-leveraging of the markets compared to what it has been doing, it must proceed very smoothly, and very cautiously about what it takes away, and when and how. And I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of poor market reaction.
For this reason, I think it prudent to continue to use and place dynamic, active, and adjustable straddling positions in order to lock in gains and to better manage your exposure to general market price level changes in either direction. Setting advanced management straddles at key coordinate forecast levels is a very effective and opportune approach, and an advanced trade strategy. In this article I have provided an EchoVector Pivot Points Perspective and method for effectively determining trigger level prices, settings, and adjustments. Using this approach at this time could prove very valuable in effectively managing both market risk and reward.
One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the DIA ETF mentioned earlier in this analysis and using the approach illustrated with the /YM Dow 30 Industrials Composite Index E-mini Futures, by setting up an advanced trade technology approach (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") to positioning and position management, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included -- for example, at $154 on the DIA.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below $154 on the DIA pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at this trigger level on reverse downtick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action. To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above $154 pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse downtick down-through action.
I would continue to closely watch the 4-year presidential cycle echovector, the 2-year congressional cycle echovector, and the annual cycle echovector for continued symmetries and confirming parallels and early divergent tells. And I would keep calculating my echovector pivot points and employing my dynamic OTAPS On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch triggers.
This way you won't be fighting the Fed; and will in fact be letting the Fed, and the market, help point you in the direction you 'should be facing.' If a correction is coming, you will be ready. And if it isn't, you will be ready for that as well."


"...  If you believe the time has come to re-enter the treasury long bond, I suggest using active and adjustable straddling positions to manage your exposure to general price level changes in either direction. Setting advanced management straddles at key coordinate forecast levels is an effective and opportune measure, and advanced trade strategy I think prudent to mention. Such an approach to the bond market at this time could prove very valuable at engaging and effectively managing risk and reward. 

One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the TLT ETF mentioned in this analysis by setting up an advanced trade technology approach (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") to positioning and position management, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included -- for example, at $106.50 on the TLT.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below $106.50 on the TLT pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at this trigger level on reverse downtick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action. To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above 106.50 pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse downtick down-through action.
I'm hoping the EchoVector Pivot Point Analysis Perspectives provided in this article help lend additional context to your potentially already broad and extensive bond market view and analysis, and that they help you to further sharpen your clarity and insight. I always recommend considering a broad range of considerations, analysis, and approaches when assessing the markets for any investment decision.


4.  "Gold Charts: Warning In February Still Valid Today"


"... In the present gold market environment-- and for more advanced and nimble gold market participants, when they do believe the time has come to re-enter gold-- I suggest the employment of active and adjustable straddling positions to manage exposure to general price level changes. Setting advanced management straddles at key coordinate forecast levels is an effective and opportune measure, and advanced trade strategy. Such an approach is particularly well-tailored to -- and could prove very valuable in-- engaging and effectively managing this volatile gold market going forward into fall, and beyond.
One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the GTU, GLD, or IAU ETFs. By setting up an advanced trade technology (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch")-- for example, at $11.25 on the IAU or at $44.60 on the GTU, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included-- such a straddle can be employed.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below either of these mentioned target price switch levels (e.g., $11.25 on the IAU and/or $44.60 on the GTU) pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse downtick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action. To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above either of these the target price switch levels ($11.25 on the IAU and/or $44.60 on the GTU) pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse downtick down-through action.
Now may be a very good time to employ this gold market straddle and this more advanced trade technology and active position management methodology, especially when considering the level of volatility we have just witnessed since my February warning in gold earlier this year.
Those readers who have followed this strategy since February have not only saved 20 percent on the downside, but have earned 20% more on the short side (and even more using derivatives), and are ahead of gold market buy-and-hold participants by 40% in just the base underlying GLD ETF gold instrument, all in less than a quarter...."


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