This Week's EchoVector Pivot Point Charts And Analysis For The Gold Metals Market
BY KEVIN JOHN BRADFORD WILBUR, Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analysis Methodologist
ADVANCEVEST AND PROTECTVEST BY MOTION DYNAMICS AND PRECISION PIVOTS
The following is a foward looking focused and condensed version of the Tuesday February 25TH article "Is It Time For Caution In Gold, Or Time To Buy More?" with updated charts. See the prior article for a more expanded historical context and more expanded review of last year's powerful echovector-based analysis and active position management approach to the gold metal market and its volatility.
Last year's the dramatic decline in gold prices into its summer was big news. Since then gold has found support on a GLD ETF basis at about $115, and is in its second significant bounce from there, started in late December. The first bounce from there started close to the end of June and ran into resistance in late August at $137.50. the price of gold then fell all the way back to just under its starting bounce price before the end of the year. 18% up then 18% down; a traders' dream, but not a kind trek for investors. The second bounce we are now in seems well under way, with the GLD trading this week above the $129 for a gain of over 12% since its start near the end of December.
A good question this week is whether to add long position into gold's recent strength, particularly on any signs of daily price weakness, or to consider turning cautious on gold again and perhaps to start lightening up, or to even switch position polarity altogether and go net short? Will this second bounce hold up, and will gold move on to higher highs than occurred last August? Or will this latest bounce fizzle as the one before, and perhaps fizzle at even lower highs, setting the stage for more longer term technical decay, fizzle even before gold has a chance to close above the $130 level this quarter? How should this volatile gold market be approached given its recent price history?
LOOKING FORWARD
In December I issued an important price reversal alert calling for a bounce in gold into mid-January, and possibly beyond. I held that such a short-term bounce could and should be positioned into, on a trading basis at the very least. But, more importantly, also positioned into because of the possibility that gold might find longer term presidential cycle echovector support in 2014, and that this support might not necessarily materialize at lower absolute price levels. As mentioned, the price of gold has moved forward very nicely since December.
On January 12TH 2014, when the GLD had moved forward and closed just above the $120 level, I published my article "Revisiting Gold" featuring a close look at the charts. I emphasized how waiting until the end of June had been a very good annual risk-on risk-management strategy for gold since July 2009, and how exacting chart work also indicated early February and late July/early August proved to be significant inflection points in gold's price direction in 2010, and how a close watch in those periods this year might be prudent, keeping in mind the potential for the presidential cycle echovector symmetry to continue.
The late July/early August inflection point also proved active and significant in 2012, within the subsumed congressional cycle occurring within this current presidential cycle, which is also significant. This inflection point continued to prove operant in each of the subsumed annual cycles within this presidential cycle as well, which is further significant.
I highlighted how important, from an echovector analysis perspective, the period going forward into January's primary option expiration was, and how important the three week's following options expiration was, on a cyclical echovector analysis basis.
Last year, as well as the last several quarters, the period following the January quarterly option's expiration cycle did little in forwarding gold metals price levels, and actually proved quite precarious to prices into the first week of the following month, and in some instances, more so even beyond. However, the power of the 4-year presidential cycle echovector and the 2-year congressional cycle echovector could easily trump nearer term quarterly patterns that accrued during the recent down-pressure period.
Because of this risk, I suggested positive caution going forward, and the application of advanced triggered OTAPS switching applications in current open position management. For context see the following chart.
GLD ETF 1-YEAR DAILY OHLC
ANNUAL CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE
DECEMBER 2012 TO DECEMBER 2013
(Click to enlarge)
In the chart above the horizontal blue-purple extension vectors running about 2 months worth of trading days long from the light green oval areas in December of 2013 and December of 2012. The lower horizontal price level and time period following December of each year represents the currently active lower threshold OTAPS-PPS price level target switch, and the upper horizontal price level represents the upper threshold OTAPS price level target switch. Price movement up through the upper threshold generates a double-double open long at that trigger price and time. Price movement down through the upper threshold closes any open long positions and generates a double-double open short position at that price and time. Directional tick is very important here. Effective directional position polarity switching can also be accomplished by setting the effective open and/or close trigger prices one cent on either side of the initial base target trigger price threshold.
Additionally, movement down through the lower threshold OTAPS trigger switch closes any long positions that may otherwise be open, and generates a double-double open short position. Price movement up through the lower threshold switch will close any short position that may be open and generate a double-double long position open. The double-double leverage positions can be accomplished by utilizing related and highly liquid gold metals ULTRA ETF's on margin.
The $120.25 GLD proxy price equivalency level and echovector pivot point and otaps-pps upper band switch level was particularly important. On one side of the switch, gains from the $114.55 level were locked in. On the same side of the switch additional gains could be accrued in case of a rally. While having been penetrated upwards, further gains could also be accrued upon re-penetration to the downside in case of market price weakness. As it turned out, the bias in favor of the presidential cycle echovector and the congressional cycle echovector for relative strength right up into the last week of February occurred. And this proved very profitable for adherents to the analysis and to the active position management strategy discussed. See the chart below.
GLD ETF 4-YEAR DAILY OHLC
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE
TUESDAY 2/25/14
(Click to enlarge)
THURSDAY 2/27/14 950AMEST UPDATE
(Click to enlarge)
FURTHER ANALYSIS, STRATEGY, AND MANAGING WHAT'S AHEAD
This brings us back to the main question, "Is it now time for caution in gold to the extent of position adjustment; that is, is it time for position cover or even time for position polarity reversal now that momentum price lift into this part of February has been fulfilled? We have collected $15 on the GLD, over 13%, and about four times that on an open double-double position, over 50%, in just 2 months!
Or does the positive price lift from the December lows to current price levels portend further strength ahead this year, and should we think about adding to our position, and not trimming it back?
If it is time again for position adjustment, and if so, then which adjustment?
Reviewing the chart above, we see that the bias on the active presidential cycle echovector (white), the congressional cycle echovector (yellow), the annual cycle echovector (shorter white), and the bi-quarterly cycle echovector (shorter yellow) from Tuesday's close leading to each of their respective echobackdates does not appear to support near-term relative strength.
The blue extension otaps-pps position polarity switch signal vectors transposed from the forward pivot point cluster in 2010 to the corresponding echo-forward dates in 2014 provide a formal forward analytical context for symmetrical support and resistance pricing and timing indicators and position polarity switching actions moving forward through the quarter of 2014 into the middle of May, given present presidential cycle echovector momentum.
We can identify relative price momentum weakness going into and through many of this March's equivalent periods from the echobackdates of the key echovector cycle lengths we have been examining. For this reason it would be prudent to utilize the key active otaps-pps position cover and position polarity reversal vector highlighted on the chart above to effectively response trigger, and position orient and compliment into, whatever price action the market may bring. This otaps-pps vector currently puts the otaps-pps position cover and/or position reversal price trigger at around the $129.30 level this week. That means a drop through $129.30 on the proxy GLD ETF price equivalency basis for the gold metals market would put net short. Staying above this price, or moving down through it and then back up through it, positions net long gold. Moving down through this price closes long position at it and opens up short below it. See the zoomed chart below.
GLD ETF 4-YEAR DAILY OHLC
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE
CHART ABOVE ZOOMED TO FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2014
(Click to enlarge)
THURSDAY 2/27/14 950AMEST UPDATE
(Click to enlarge)
THURSDAY 2/27/14 UPDATE
(Click to enlarge)
This active advanced position management strategy will enable us to capture and consolidate our well-earned capital gains from late December 2013 while positioning us to take advantage of both further price gains or sudden cyclical price weakness that can occur in the presently volatile gold metals market. Simply remember, when using this active advanced position management strategy it is important to update echovectors and related otaps-pps switch signal vectors generated by them regularly.
For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".
For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".
Thanks for reading, and godspeed in your gold market investing and trading.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long or a short position in GLD and/or related Ultra ETF's over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the major market indexes, commodities, ETFs, emini-futures, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.
See echovector.info and http://seekingalpha.com/author/kevin-wilbur
This article is tagged with: EchoVector, EchoVectorVEST, GoldPivots, Stock Market Education, Futures, Federal Reserve, Market Currents, ETFs, Macro View, Alerts, Market Outlook, Economy, ETF Long and Short Ideas, ETF Analysis, Long Ideas, Commodities, Technical Analysis, EchoVectorVEST MDPP Precision Pivots, ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST,GLD, GTU, AGOL, DUST, FSG, GDX, GDXJ, GGGG, GLDX, GLL, IAU, NUGT, SGOL, TBAR, UGL, RING, DBB, DBP, GLTR, PSAU, XME, AGQ, DBS, SIL, SLVP, SIVR, SLV, USLV, DSLV, ZSL, WITE, DGP, DGZ, DZZ, SPGH, UBG, UBM, USV, UGLD, DGLD
ECHOVECTOR CYCLE LENGTH COLOR CODE GUIDE:
4-Year Presidential Cycle EchoVectors: White
2-Year Congressional Cycle EchoVectors: Yellow
1-Year Annual Cycle EchoVectors: White or Red
6-Month Bi-Quarterly Cycle EchoVectors: Yellow
3-Month Quarterly Cycle EchoVectors: White
OTAPS-PPS Position Polarity Cover And/Or Position Polarity Switch Signal Time/Price Vectors Extending From Key Coordinate Forecast EchoVector Pivot Points: Blue-Purple
METHODOLOGY FOOTNOTES
"EchoVector Theory and EchoVector Analysis assert that a securities prior price patterns may influence its present and future price patterns. Present and future price patterns may then, in part, be considered as 'echoing' these prior price patterns to some identifiable and measurable degree.
EchoVector Analysis is also used to forecast and project potential price Pivot Points (referred to as PPP's --potential pivot points, or EVPP's --EchoVector Pivot Points) and active, past and future coordinate forecast echovector support and resistance echovectors (SREV's) for a security from a starting reference price at a starting reference time, based on the securities prior price pattern within a given and significant and definable cyclical time frame.
EchoVector Pivot Points and EchoVector Support and Resistance Vectors are fundamental components of EchoVector Analysis. EchoVector SREV's are constructed from key components in the EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation. EchoVector SREV's are defined and calculated and also referred to as Coordinate Forecast EchoVectors (CFEV's) to the initial EchoVector (XEV) calculation and construction, where X designates not only the time length of the EchoVector XEV, but also the time length of XEV's CFEVs. The EchoVector Pivot Points are found as the endpoints of XEV's CFEVs' calculations and the CFEVs' constructions.
The EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation is a fundamentally different and more advanced calculation than the traditional pivot point calculation.
The EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation differs from traditional pivot point calculation by reflecting this given and specified cyclical price pattern length and reference, and its significance and information, within the pivot point calculation. This cyclical price pattern and reference is included in the calculations and constructions of the echovector and its respective coordinate forecast echovectors, as well as in the calculation of the related echovector pivot points.
While a traditional pivot point calculation may use simple price averages of prior price highs, lows and closes indifferent to their sequence in time to calculate its set of support and resistance levels, the echovector pivot point calculation begins with any starting time and price point and respective cyclical time frame reference X, and then identifies the corresponding "Echo-Back-Time-Point" within this cyclical time frame reference coordinate to the starting reference price and time point A. It then calculates the echovector (XEV) generated by the starting reference time/price point and the echo-back-time-point, and includes the pre-determined and pre-defined accompanying constellation of "Coordinate Forecast EchoVector" origins derived from the prior price pattern evidenced around the echo-back-time-point within a certain pre-selected and specified range (time and/or price version) that occurred within the particular referenced cyclical time-frame and period X. Security I's EchoVector Pivot Point constructions then calculate and project the scope relative echovector pivot points that follow A, and the support and resistance levels determined by the ensuing coordinate forecast echovectors and their selected range definition inclusion (fully differentiating the time-sequence of the origins), the cyclical time-frame X, and to XEV's slope.
EchoVector Pivot Points are therefore advanced and fluid calculations and effective endpoints of projected coordinate forecast echovector support and resistance time/price levels, projections that are constructed from and follow in time from the starting reference price, time/price point A (echovector endpoint) of the initial subject focus echovector construction, and which occur within an EchoVector Pivot Point Price Projection Parallelogram construct: levels which are derived from coordinate (support and/or resistance) forecast echovectors calculated from particular 'scope and range defined' starting times and price points reflecting the time and price points of proximate scale and scope and time/price pivoting action that followed the initial subject focus interest echovector's echo-back-date-time-price-point B (derived from and relative to the initial subject focus echovector's starting time-point and price-point A, and the echovector's given and specified cyclically-based focus interest time-span X, and the initial subject focus echovector's subsequently derived slope relative momentum measures).
The EchoVector Support and Resistance Vectors, referred to as the Coordinate Forecast Echovectors, are used to generate the EchoVector Pivot Points."
From "Introduction to EchoVector Analysis And EchoVector Pivot Points"COPYRIGHT 2013 ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS
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BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS
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