(1) THE MAJOR MARKET IN LARGE CAP US STOCKS: THE DIA, SPY, AND QQQ
(2) THE MAJOR MARKET IN LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL: THE USO
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THE MAJOR MARKET ALERT FOR THE LARGE CAP US STOCK MARKET
DIA ETF PEB ALERT
Key Active dia etf peb ootvtaps was $131.75 3 leg fnpi fnpds fnpdl in force, and reset to $132.65 for major market stock composites. (It is currently active and positive on the Double Long Leg.)
Fully Cover Full Net Portfolio Position with Insurance
Major Double to Quad Short Opportunity in the USO
Use May 19 2012 140 SPY Puts for Alternative Double/Quad Short Opportunity Positioning (SPY *PEB)
Stay Nimble. UFN (Until Further Notice)
*PEB Price Equivalency Basis. Use for SPX, SPY, and NDX, QQQ, Timing and Action Equivalencies
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LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL SECTOR ALERT
USO ETF ALERT
Fully Cover Full Net Stock Position with Insurance
Major Double to Quad Short Opportunity in the USO
USE USO May 19 2012 38 to 40 Puts for Alternative Double/Quad Short Opportunity Positioning
Stay Nimble. UFN (Until Further Notice)
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See Posts and Charts on SPX and USO Below
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SPX CHART:
GuideChart Illustrating The "Sell In May And Go Away!" Wall Street Phenomena And The Subsequent Stock Market Composite Price Level Drop In Presidential And Congressional Election Years.
Provided below is a graphical display of the professionally favored and broadly watch Large Cap Stock Market Index, the $SPX.
The SPX is the favored index, and "general stock market measure" used by professional analyst and investment managers both domestically and globally. It is held as the predominate and most representative measure of the US Large Cap Securities Market.
Presented below is a GuideChart of the SPX which illustrates the effects of the (1) Presidential Election Cycle and the (2) Congressional Election Cycle on the price level of the SPX.
In this illustration, I am focusing particularly on the effect of the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and Go Away", and how this adage is (1) illustratively pronounced in Presidential Election Cycle years and Congressional Cycle Years, and (2) how it can lead to the start of, and cascade into a precipitous and major Stock Market selloff's in Regime Change Cycle Election years (which are usually every eight years, but can occur, post facto, in four years as well.)
Also illustrated is how immediately preceding annual echovector cycles can also foreshadow the May selloff (see the May 2011 and May 2010 echovectors highlighted in beige)
READING SPX GUIDECHART:
1. Click on the Chart and then Click again to both enlarge and zoom the chart. Use your optimum display settings also.
2. The SPX GuideChart is a 10-Year Weekly OHLC (Open/High/Low/Close) Price Bar chart
3. The Congressional Election Cycle is displayed in alternate yellow and agua-blue vectors, in order to discern every two years along the chart from the key First Trading Week of May bar and its high price more clearly.
4. The selloff from the first week of May to the traditional 2ND or 3RD Week of August is displayed with a red vector. The white bars located under Congressional Cycle or located on the weekly OHLC (Open/High/Low/Close) price bar line also display these annual sell-off sums.
5. In solid green are the correlate dates of the weekly bars beginning the selloff the first trading week in May for the cycle years.
6. In solid red are the correlate dates of the weekly bars completing the selloff sum at that time. Notice that in many cycle years 'lower lows' are achieved before this date.
7. The horizontal solid pink line illustrates how the SPX has achieved the nearly perfect correlate price level to May four years earlier, on aweekly closing price basis. This is often referred to as a resistance price levelvector (with respect to the expressed specific time quantity (in this case, being four years).
8. The eight-year long dotted-green lines represent key price vectors and ascending price channels identified by EchoVectorVEST MDPP.
9. Notice the magnitude of the selloff from (1) the first week in May of Regime Change Cycle Election year, or, (2) as measured from its preceding year's summer price high.
We hope this chart helps demonstrate the prudence of applying price level insurance to major market funds and ETFS. These funds and ETFs typically comprise a large portion of overall portfolio exposure existing under passive professional management regiments and affiliations.
The historical reward-to-risk ratio of proceeding beyond THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY without 'major stock market exposed' portfolio price level 'insurance' applications, or proceeding to just continue along within 'full uninsured passive portfolio management portfolio exposures', would seem imprudent and potentially counter-productive to overall accrued, and time-already-spent-earned, portfolio value.
In the present era of active and advance financial management and financial position and holdings value optimization techniques, better price protection strategies and portfolio management and portfolio value enhancement opportunities are available.
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SPX 10-Year Weekly OHLC GuideChart
(click to enlarge)
Disclosure: I am short SPY.
Themes: QQQ, $RUT, IWM, $DJIA, $OEX, $XMI, ETF, Composite Indexes, Stock Market Outlook, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis,Cyclical Analysis, Price Analysis Stocks: SPY, DIA
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A Current USO ETF EchoVector And EchoBackDate Price Analysis: Is Seasonal Price History Unfolding Again?
Apr 30, 2012 11:03 PMA Current USO ETF EchoVector And EchoBackDate Price Analysis: Is Seasonal Price History Unfolding Again?April 29, 2012 2:35 PMRecently there has been a tremendous amount of interest and much media attention given to the energy markets, and particularly to the markets for crude oil and gasoline.The seasonal February-through-April 'price strength period' unfolded and manifested itself once again this year, and with usual its usual price vigor.Provided below is a chart with an excellent graphical illustration of this year's 'price seasonalities' in the USO ETF.Also shown and marked on the chart are the many regular and repeating annual price 'ebbs and flows' experienced in the USO ETF the last several years.A close examination of the chart may significantly aid the portfolio manager, and the trader, in their management of USO ETF positions, analysis, and reasoned forecasts, and perhaps also with other USO-related ETF's and commodity futures and indexes. Especially if their analysis includes or emphasizes seasonal and historical conditions and price patterns... and relevant echovectors.Following the USO ETF price chart below I have listed some 'suggestive analytical perspectives', and some key 'notes of interest'.Upon review of this chart and its technical indications, prepared caution in the near-term regarding the USO ETF's present price level, and going forward the next several weeks, may well be in order._________________________________________________________USO ETF Chart4-Year Weekly OHLC ChartWith Key Active Annual EchoVectors And Annual EchoBackWeeks's Highlighted:(Click on chart and click again to enlarge and zoom)On Chart Above: Suggestive Analytics and Key Notes of Interest:1. Be aware of month 4 in the Annual and Bi-Annual Cycles2. Note first 3 weeks of month 5.3. Note the 'price level low' of the first week of May, and how it proves to be 'around top or close to sell-down price level,' occurring at end of July and beginning of August's 'mid-2/-3rd week's summer top.'4. Be aware of momentum reversal at the end of September and the beginning of October, after downside price consolidation.5. Be aware of the 'about one quarter earlier in time' momentum bottom occurring at the end of June/early July. Note that reversal is good for first month, of three subsequent months, leading to October, and failing around beginning of August. This forms a cone with June/July and September/October bottoms with an August 'pointed top'.6. In our view, these are significant seasonal relative strength reversal periods and indicators. EchoVectors and EchoVector EchoBackDates are significant in the analysis, forecast, and current price and price level measurements here.7. Note the importance of week 6 low and the week 9 high, and sell-off from week 9 to week 11, in the 'Winter Quarter EchoVector (following the prior fall and summer quarterly weekly High and Low weekly momentum pattern deltas, within a quarterly and bi-quarterly echovector and echobackvector analysis, focusing on key echobackweek highs and lows.Within your own working analytic frame, retopologize the 3-Year OHLC daily price action charts for further definition and precision revelation, and then retopologize those further to 'hourly intra-day and further discrete price action for even further 'resolution and revelation'. Then overlay this data with regular announcement schedule information, special inventory and/or production announcement information occurrences, and further with related macro-event impacting announcements... all for increased and even further definition, forecast, and management insight and effectiveness.Disclosure: I am short USO.Themes: etf-analysis
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Current USO ETF Trader's Edge EasyGuideChart By ProtectVEST And AdvanceVEST, EchoVectorVEST, MDPP
April 27, 2012
Current USO ETF EchoVector and EchoBackDate Price Analysis: by ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST by EchoVectorVEST
There has been a tremendous amount of interest and much media attention given to the energy markets recently, particularly to to the market prices of crude oil and gasoline. The 'seasonal' February through April price strength period has manifested itself yet once again this year with vigor.
Provided below is an excellent graphical illustration of this year's price seasonality, and much more. Provided also is a significant graphical illustration of the many regular annual price 'ebbs and flows' experienced in the USO ETF the last several years.
A close examination of the chart below can significantly aid the portfolio manager and the trader in the management of their market position analysis and responsibilities and their resasonable forecasts in the USO ETF, and related ETF's, and commodity futures, and indexes with an emphasis on seasonal and historical conditions and historical price patterns... and echovectors.
Key notes of interest and suggestive analysis are presented below the chart.
ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST by EchoVectorVEST
Divisions of Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots
Bradford Market Research and Analytics
"We're keeping watch for you!"
USO ETF
Trader's Edge Master EasyGuideChart
4-Year Weekly OHLC Chart
With Key Active Annual EchoVectors And Annual EchoBackWeeks's Highlighted:
EchoBackWeeks
EchoBackDates
EchoBackPoints
EchoBackPeriods, and
EchoVectors
On Chart Above:
1. Be aware of monh 4 in the Annual and Bi-Annual Cycles
2. Note first 3 weeks of month 5.
3. Note the 'price level low' of the first week of May, and how it proves to be 'around top or close to sell-down price level,' occuring at end of July and beginning of August's 'mid-2/-3rd week's summer top.'
4. Be aware of momentum reversal at the end of September and the beginning of October, after downside price consolidation.
5. Be aware of the 'about one quarter earlier in time' momentum bottom occuring at the end of June/early July. Note that reversal is good for first month, of three subsequent months, leading to October, and failing around beginning of August. This forms a cone with June/July and Sept/Oct bottoms with an August 'pointed top'.
6. In our view, these are significant seasonal relative strength reversal periods and indicators. EchoVectors and EchoVector EchoBackDates are significant in the analysis, forecast, and current price and price level measurements here.
7. Note the importance of week 6 low and the week 9 high, and sell-off from week 9 to week 11, in the Winter EchoVector Quarter (following the prior fall and summer quarterly weekly High and Low weekly momentum pattern deltas, withinin a quarterly and bi-quarterly echovector and echobackvector analysis, focusing on key EchoBackWeek highs and lows.
Within your own working analytic frame, re-topologize the 3 -Year OHLC daily price action charts for further definition and precision revelation, and then re-topologize those further to 'hourly intra-day and further discrete price action for even further 'resolution and revelation'. Then overlay this data with regular announcement schedule information, special inventory and/or production announcement information occurances, and further with related macro-event impacting announcements... all for increased and even further definition, forecast, and management insight and effectiveness.
See www.EchoVectorVEST.Blogspot.com
www.echovectorvest.com
www.motiondynamicsandprecisionpivots.com
ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST by EchoVectorVEST
Divisions of Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots
Bradford Market Research and Analytics
"We're keeping watch for you!"
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