MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER

THE REST OF THE MARKET ALPHA NEWSLETTERS GROUP


"Positioning for change; staying ahead of the curve; we're keeping watch for you!"


Currently The Leading And Regularly Updated And FREE Online Consolidated Newsletter Version Of "The Market Pivots Forecaster", Featuring Today's MARKET PIVOTS And Time Cycle PIVOT POINT Forecast Projections And Indicators, And PIVOT POINT FrameCharts And Illustrations, By MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS, In Association With The Market Alpha Newsletters Group And BrightHousePublishing.Com. Providing Valuable And Timely Tutorial Market Price Path Analysis And Price Forecast Projection FrameCharts And PIVOT POINT Timing Indicators, Advanced Time Cycle PIVOT POINT Indicator EchoVectors, Key Time Cycle PIVOT POINT EchoVector Echo-Back-Dates, Key Active Time Cycle PIVOT POINT Projection Coordinate Forecast EchoVectors And EchoVector Support And Resistance Vectors, And Advanced Forecast EchoVector PIVOT POINT Projections And Inflection Points For Select Market Composite Indexes, ETFs, Options, And Futures In Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, And Emerging Markets, With A Strong Focus And Emphasis On Select, Proxying And Indicative Market Sector Indexes, ETFs, Options, And Emini Futures Instruments In Key Markets.


With


THE ETF PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER


And


THE EMINI PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER


And


THE OPTION PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER


And With


"THE REST OF THE MARKET ALPHA NEWLSETTERS GROUP'S ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTERS"

THE MARKET ALPHA NEWSLETTERS GROUP'S FREE CONSOLIDATED ONLINE VERSION SITE

PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST

PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS

"Positioning for change, staying ahead of the curve, we're keeping watch for you!"

OUR RESEARCHING VIEWERSHIP

OUR ACTIVE ADVANCED PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCHING VIEWERSHIP NOW INCLUDES RESEARCHERS IN OVER 100 COUNTRIES FROM AROUND THE WORLD! INCLUDING...


Afghanistan/ Angola/ Argentina/ Australia/ Austria/ Azerbaijan/ Bahamas/ Bahrain/ Bangladesh/ Belarus/ Belgium/ Belize/ Bermuda/ Botswana/ Brazil/ Burma/ Cambodia/ Cameroon/ Canada/ Caymen Islands/ Chile/ China/ Columbia/ Costa Rica/ Croatia/ Cyprus/ Czech Republic/ Denmark/ Ecuador/ Egypt/ El Salvador/ Equatorial Guinea/ Estonia/ France/ Finland/ Germany/ Greece/ Guam/ Guernsey/ Hong Kong/ Hungary/ India/ Indonesia/ Iraq/ Ireland/ Israel/ Italy/ Jamaica/ Japan/ Jordan/ Kazakhstan/Kenya/ Korea/ Kuwait/ Latvia/ Lithuania/ Luxembourg/ Macau/ Macedonia/ Malaysia/ Malta/ Mexico/ Moldova/ Mongolia/ Morocco/ Myanmar (Burma)/ Namibia/ Nepal/ Netherlands/ New Zealand/ Nicaragua/ Nigeria/ Norway/ Oman/ Panama/ Pakistan/ Peru/ Philippines/ Poland/ Portugal/ Qatar/ Romania/ Russia/ Saudi Arabia/ Serbia/ Seychelles/ Singapore/ Slovakia/ South Africa/ Sri Lanka/ Spain/ Sweden/ Switzerland/ Taiwan/ Thailand/ Togo/ Trinidad and Tobago/ Tunisia/ Turkey/ Turkmenistan/ Ukraine/ United Arab Emirates/ United Kingdom/ United States/ US Virgin Islands/ Uzbekistan/ Venezuela/ Vietnam/ Zimbabe/ And More!

PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST ARTICLE GLOBAL PUBLICATION AND SYNDICATION

PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST ARTICLE GLOBAL PUBLICATION AND SYNDICATION
PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS ARTICLES HAVE APPEARED IN PUBLICATION OR IN SYNDICATION IN YEARS 2012 TO 2022 AT

GLOBAL OUTLETS AND TERMINALS

Nasdaq, CNBC, MSN Money, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Reuters, Barrons, Forbes, SeekingAlpha, Market Pivots Forecaster, BizNewsToday, Benzinga, Business Insider, Daily Finance, StreetInsider, Top10Traders, Fixed Income and Commodities, EchoVectorVEST, Financial Visualizations, YCharts, XYZ Trader Systems, ZeroHedge, Predict WallStreet, Market-Pivots, Financial RoundTable, Financial Board Central, Bullfax, BizWays, BizFeedz, StockFlash, MoneyShow, TradingView, Investor Hangout, StockPicksExpert, The Finance Spot, Business News Index, Regator, Streamica, BusinessBalla, Finanzachricten, StockLeaf, News Now UK, The Economic Times, Finance Pong, Seeking Alpha Japan, Yahoo Finance Australia, Yahoo Finance New Zealand, Yahoo Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance Singapore, Gold News Today, GoldPivots, Casey Research, AurumX, Sharps Pixley News, Royals Metal Group, A-Mark Precious Metals, SBG Direct, Horizontal Metals, GoldSilverMoney, Sterling Investment Services, Prompto Capita, Silver Investor Weekly, Austin Rare Coins and Bullion, GoldPivots, Gold Trend, GoldPrice Today, Gold Rate 24, Check Gold Price, Gold Investor Weekly, Silver Price News, Silver News Now, Silver Phoenix 500, Silver News, Silver Price, Silver Prices Today, SilverPivots, Precious-Metals, VestTrader, Value Forum, Coin Info, Investment Four You, AidTrader, Trend Mixer, Indonesian Company, SiloBreaker, ETF Bannronn, SportBalla, Trading Apples, Skeptical Market Observer, Pension Plus, Fixed Income And Commodities, Collateral Finance Corporation, One Page News, EarthBlogNews, NewsFlashy, Veooz News, Wopular, Open Box Experiment, US Government Portal, Do It Yourself Investor, The Atlanta Journal Constitution, News Blogged, and others.

THE MARKET ALPHA NEWSLETTERS GROUP -- CONSOLIDATED FREE ONLINE VERSIONS -- PREMIUM DESKS POSTS


On special occasions, the popular MarketPivotsTV Worldwide Broadcast, featuring real-time active advanced SP500TV and OptionPivotsLive market intelligence, may become temporarily available, free online, utilizing any common browser with NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL APP DOWNLOADS OR OPERATING APPLICATIONS, and, instead, available directly and simply through your everyday browsers! On these special broadcast occasions, simply open up your preferred browser (eg., Edge, Firefox, Google, etc.) on any screened device such as phone, notebook, laptop, desktop, TV, etc., and access MarketPivotsTV directly at URL address screenleap.com/marketpivots and, if you like, sign in both free and anonymously! Simply use an anonymous psuedo-name such as Anonymous1, Anonymous2, Anonymous3, etc., to sign in and view! Limited seats are available during these special free access opportunity occasions! Experience the power and advantage of live MDPP Precision Pivots "Trader's Edge" advanced market intelligence, including streaming and select focus forecast projection framecharts and live active advanced scenario setups on MarketPivotsTV! Sponsored by The MDPP Precision Pivots Global Financial Markets Laboratory, The EchoVector Technical Analysis Association, MarketInvestorsWeekly, The Market Pivots Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter, The Market Alpha Newsletters Group, SP500TV, OptionPivotsLive and by special sponsors POWERTADESTATIONS and POWERTRADESTATIONSGLOBAL!
Special Discalimer: All broadcasts on MarketPivotsTV and content in this post are for educational and informational purposes only. There can be significant risks involved with investing including loss of principal. There is no guarantee that the goals or the strategies and examples presented or discussed will be achieved. NO content provided on MarketPivotsTV, on this Site, our Blogs, Newsletters, and any Social Media MarketPivotsTV or we engage in constitutes a recommendation that any particular investment strategy, security, portfolio of securities, or transaction is suitable for any specific person. Further understand that MarketPivotsTV and none of our bloggers, information providers, App providers, or their affiliates are advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Again, all broadcasts on MarketPivotsTV and content in this post are for educational and informational purposes only. BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO FIRST CONSULT WITH YOUR PERSONAL FINANCIAL ADVISOR.

FRAMECHART EXAMPLES: DAY, 2D, 5D, 10D, MONTH, QUARTER, 2Q, YEAR, 2Y, 4Y, MORE (Click And Refresh)

THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER


THE MARKET ALPHA NEWSLETTERS GROUP FREE ONLINE CONSOLIDATED NEWSLETTERS VERSION


BY MARKETINVESTORSWEEKLY.COM AND BRIGHTHOUSEPUBLISHING.COM!

TODAY'S POSTS

POST REFERENCE INDEX

QUICK REFERENCE INDEX TO THIS MONTH'S, THIS YEAR'S, AND BACK YEARS' POSTS

TODAY'S MOST RECENT MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS PREMIUM DESKS RELEASE POST NOW FREE ONLINE

TODAY'S MOST RECENT MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS PREMIUM DESKS RELEASE POST NOW FREE ONLINE
ANALYSIS, ALERTS, OTAPS SIGNALS, CHART ILLUSTRATIONS, AND COMMENTARY

Friday, March 7, 2014

S&P 500 /ES Futures Article And FrameChart: Friday March 7/2104 Update: A Stock Market Melt-Up And The US Political Economic Cycle: An Update Of "Don't Fight The Fed"

A Stock Market Melt-Up And The US Political Economic Cycle: An Update of "Don't Fight The Fed"


Summary
  • Federal Reserve supports stock market to stabilize last presidential midterm election year.
  • Stock market melts up after midterm election year in last three US Administrations.
  • The stock market momentum that follows the post presidential midterm election year and runs through all three administrations is on course and offers a strong indicator to this year's forecast. See the EchoVector pivot Point Analysis Framechart provided.

BACKGROUND

In August of 2012 I wrote an article examining the Federal Reserve Bank's interest in avoiding excessive market volatility in the a presidential midterm election year of 2012, and instead the Bank wanting to be a significant and effective force and national institution promoting economic stability and economic encouragement to the American electorate during that important political economic and financially sensitive time. In that article, titled Don't Fight The Fed, I explained how the US Federal Reserve Bank lead a global central bank coordinated and orchestrated effort to support stock prices and the wealth effect with a Federal Reserve Bank generated composite stock market price support level bridge during one of the most vulnerable periods in the political economic cycle. Supporting composite stock market price levels and preventing potentially ensuing cyclical price level erosion, and positively trajecting prices further upward instead, was the purpose of this coordinated global central bank intervention.

This article is a follow-up of my previous article. In it I would like to focus on, and to review, how large cap composite equity prices have in fact responded to the presidential mid-term election cycle central bank intervention which occurred in the summer of 2012 within the US political economic cycle, and to take a closer look at the current market price level trajectory induced by the central bank when viewed within the context and the time span of stock market price levels over the last three 8-year American presidential regimes: the Clinton regime, the Bush regime, and now the Obama regime.

A LOOK AT THE LAST THREE US PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONS' POST MIDTERM ELECTION MELT-UPS IN STOCKS

Let's begin by looking at the following 20-year price track of the S&P 500 Composite Stock Index as reflected a proxy chart of the popular /ES E-mini Futures on that index.

S&P 500 Stock Composite Index /ES E-mini Futures 20-Year Monthly OHLC Perspective

(click to enlarge)

In the chart above note the key white 16-year market financial cycle echovector running from The April 1, 1997, the echobackdate and year following the Clinton Administration mid-term election year, to the April 1 2005 echobackdate and year following the Bush Administration mid-term election year, to the April 1 2013 echovector start date, and year following the Obama Administration mid-term election year.

Notice also the general horizontal price resistance level highlighted in white running from the Clinton Regime's price level toppiness in year 2000 to the Bush Regime price level toppiness in year 2007 to the late spring and summer time sell in May and go away period of the Obama Regime in 2013.

In May of 2013 prices had faltered at this critical time and price level and fell nearly 10% into June. Rallying off the June lows prices began to fall back again in August, potentially setting up a toppy formation much like that in 2007.

It was in the Federal Reserve Bank's genuine interest, and in The Federal Reserve Bank Chairman's focus, his specialty, and his legacy interest, to prevent another market collapse reminiscent of 2008 or 2001-2002, and this seasonal price pressure weakness from accelerating into a more precarious market price phenomena and political economic market cycle echo. And the central bank's ensuing coordinated efforts to place a bridge under stock market prices that summer could not have been more effective nor better timed for this purpose.

The bridge in place, and holding well into November, and that month's returning annual and congressional cycle lows kicking in, with them occurring at these upper and bridged supported price levels, set the stage for significantly better price level momentum trajectory than otherwise, and eventual price level resistance breakthrough and price melt-up, in lei of price level collapse. Whereas these last three regime mid-term election years appear characterized by little price progress going into July after their first quarter highs, the year that follows, being year 5 in the existing administration's regime change cycle, holds onto momentum price gains on both a year-over-year basis and on a 2-year congressional cycle basis. The latter being even stronger, accelerating prices even further and propelling them into melt-up. This effect was anticipated in my article of August 2012, and has been central to my positive market forecast since.

OUTLOOK

Some analyst have been calling for a pullback from high's this quarter into lower lows this fall, with a bounce back to higher highs going into next year. The above analysis would tend to support such an outlook.
However, currently vigilance and caution at the high price level present may be the better part of wisdom. We have gained over 44% on the S&P since August 2012, and have completed what might be viewed, at best, as the first half of a melt-up that occurs before a potential second wave of melt-up cyclically begins in the second half of this year. Be mindful that sometimes the market, anticipating far enough into the future cyclically, seems to rush to get there early, accomplishing momentum over-extension. This might have also, in part, contributed to the drama of 2008 with regard to downside extension.

At this time within this regime change cycle within the political economic cycle, and at current price levels, my suggestion is to remain nimble, and to let the best price extension scenario evolve, but to also remain ready to lock in gains through hedging utilities in the event of scope relative counter-cyclical occurrences, and to do so possibly right up into the second quarter of next year.
One way to accomplish being nimble would be to set up an active and adjustable OTAPS position polarity switch and straddle to manage your general stock market exposure to any potential changes in the general price level momentum and your forward outlook. Setting straddles at momentum echovector switch level prices is an effective and opportune measure and advanced trade and position management strategy.

One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the SPY ETF and/or the DIA ETF. By setting up an advanced trade technology (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") at, for example, $190 on the SPY or at $166 on the DIA, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.
To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below either of these mentioned target price switch levels (e.g., $190 on the SPY and/or $166 on the DIA) pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action.

To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above either of these the target price switch levels ($190 on the SPY and/or $166 on the DIA) pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.
Now may be a very good time to employ this general market straddle and this more advanced trade technology switch and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing the proxy chart of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years within the current presidential regime change cycle.

Thanks for reading. And Godspeed in your investing.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

PAGEVIEWS BY COUNTRY - TOP TEN COUNTRIES

Pageviews by Countries

Graph of most popular countries among blog viewers
EntryPageviews

United States

57668

Russia

17373

France

8896

Germany

8033

Ukraine

7370

China

4411

Malaysia

1891

Turkey

1735

Brazil

1297

Poland

976
LOOK FOR THIS WEEK'S KEY, AND POTENTIALLY POWERFUL RETURN, OPTIONPIVOTS.COM (WEEKLYS) ACTIVE ADVANCED MANAGEMENT FOCUS INTEREST OPPORTUNITY VIRTUAL FORECAST AND ALERT SCENARIO SETUP PRESENTATION AND POST -- ON THE SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM GLD, SLV, TLT, TBT, AND/OR USO PROXIES. AT LEAST ONE KEY PREMIUM DESKS RELEASED FOCUS FORECAST SCENARIO AND STRATEGY OPPORTUNITY ILLUSTRATION TENDS TO APPEAR AND BE PUBLISHED "FREE ONLINE" EACH WEEK
SEE THIS WEEK'S
OPTIONPIVOTS.COM (WEEKLYS) FREE ONLINE VERSION KEY FOCUS INTEREST OPPORTUNITY FORECAST SCENARIO, STRATEGY, AND ALERT SETUP, AND CORRESPONDING ANALYSIS FRAMECHARTS, GUIDEMAPS, TRADENOTES AND COMMENTARY BY MARKET INVESTOR WEEKLY (OPTIONPIVOTS.COM WEEKLYS FOCUS) AT "THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER, PREMIUM DESKS RELEASES NOW FREE ONLINE CONSOLIDATED MANG VERSION

BY THE MARKET ALPHA NEWSLETTERS GROUP, AND BY BRIGHTHOUSE PUBLISHING
OPTIONPIVOTS.COM (WEEKLYS)

Optionpivots.com Posts, Focus TRADER'S EDGE EVPPA Forecast FrameCharts, OTAPS-PPS Active Advanced Management Position Polarity Signal Vector GuideMaps, Alerts, Tradenotes and Commentary With Key Focus Interest Oppportunity EVPPA Data-Mined Forecast Scenario Setup And Strategy Analysis And Illustration For The Current Week And/Or Beyond.

Coming key short-term short and/or short-term long echovector pivot point analysis forecast scenario setup based interday or intraday optionpivots.com weeklys focus interest opportunity points, periods, and extensions.

EXAMPLE MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS MODEL AND PARADIGM GENERATED VIRTUAL OPPORTUNITIES PRESENTED, FRAMED, DISCUSSED, HIGHLIGHTED, AND ILLUSTRATED FOR THE WEEK, WITH CAPITAL GAIN RESULTS SUMMARIZED

KEY FORECAST AND STRATEGY SCENARIO FOCUS PROXY INSTRUMENTS:

SPY, /ES
DIA, /YM
QQQ, /NQ
IWM, /TF
TLT, /ZB, /US
TBT, /ZN, /TY
GLD, /GC
SLV, /YI
USO, /QM, /CL


ACTIVE ADVANCED RISK MANAGEMENT OTAPS-PPS ALERTS

Introducing the Active Advanced Risk Management On/Off/Through Vector Target Application Price Switch. Position Management and Value Optimization Technology. See "OTAPS" Link Above Right.

ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION MANAGEMENT DOUBLE LEVERAGE AND DOUBLE-DOUBLE LEVERAGE ALERTS

Introducing PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST Active Advanced Management (A) Double and (B) Double-Double Positioning Technology For Select Instruments and Key Focus Interest Opportunity Periods. See Links Above Right.

OPTIMIZING LEVERAGE RETURNS WITH DERIVATIVES AND SYNTHETICS

Introducing The PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST Active Advance Derivatives Management Levels 1, 2, 3 , And 4 Technology For Position Value Hedging and Value Optimizing Strategies. See The Derivatives Baskets Reference Guide Link And Levels Link Above Right.

ECHOVECTOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ASSOCIATION

THE TIME CYCLE PRICE MOMENTUM ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT PRICE PROJECTION PARALLELOGRAM - KEY TIME CYCLE LENGTHS


KEY ELEMENTAL STOCHASTICS CYCLE PHASE INPUTS: Economic Calendar, Earning Calendar, Options Expiration Calendar, Futures Expiration Calendar, FRB Announcement And Release Calendar - Federal Open Market Committee Calendar, Political Cycle Calendar, Global Markets Intra-day Rotation Calendar - Opens & Closes & Key Time and Time Block Wave High & Lows, etc.


2HEV 2 Hour EchoVector

4HEV 2 Hour EchoVector

6HEV 6 Hour EchoVector

8HEV 8 Hour EchoVector

12HEV 12 Hour EchoVector

24HEV 24 Hour EchoVector

48HEV 48 Hour EchoVector

72HEV 72 Hour EchoVector

WEV Weekly EchoVector

2WEV Bi-Weekly EchoVector

MEV Monthly EchoVector

2MEV Bi-Monthly EchoVector

QEV Quarterly Echovector

2QEV Bi-Quarterly EchoVector

AEV Annual EchoVector

2AEV 2 Year EchoVector Congressional

PCEV 4 Year EchoVector Presidential

FRBEV 5 Year EchoVector Federal Reserve Bank

SEV 6 Year EchoVector Senatorial

RCCEV 8 Year EchoVector Regime Change

MCEV 16 year EchoVector Maturity