BONDPIVOTS.COM: Treasury Long Bonds: TLT ETF: This Week's Alert and Article's EchcoVector Analysis FrameChart Update: TLT ETF ProxyChart: POWERFUL SETUP AND RESULTS THIS WEEK FROM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS ARTICLE ALERT ON TREASURY LONG BOND MARKET AND ACTIVE OTAPS-PPS ADVANCED POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: 600% GAINS ON SIMPLE APRIL CALL EV-OTAPS-PPS LEVEL 1 ACTIVE POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND EXECUTION: UPDATE 300PM DST FRIDAY 28 MARCH 2014

Treasury Long Bond Bulls Celebrate This Week's Key Gains

Mar. 27, 2014 12:30 PM ET  |  3 comments |  Includes: BOND, GOVT, HYG, LQD, TBT, TLT

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

Summary

• In last Wednesday's FOMC Statement, the Federal Reserve Bank announced further tapering its bond buying program by $10 billion per month, to $55 billion.
• Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen also surprised the markets last week by hinting that a hike in the Fed's prime lending rate might begin sooner than expected.
• Last week's report on the Conference Board Leading Economic Index stated the LEI increased .5% in February, indicating increased economic activity and demand for money may be on the way.
• Yesterday provided key technical support to long bond prices as prices pushed up into a key price resistance level that has stalled further gains for over half a year.
• Long bond prices could break out to the upside.

In last week's FOMC statement, the Federal Reserve indicated it will be further tapering its bond buying program by $10 billion per month, a reduction to $55 billion. Also, in her own statement last week, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen surprised the markets by hinting that the Federal Reserve Bank may also begin to raise its prime lending rate six months sooner than most bankers and market analysts had expected.

In addition to these changes at the Fed, last week The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, the LEI, was reported to have increased .5% overall in February. This overall increase in the LEI, along with its current sector by sector balance, indicate that an increase in economic activity may be on its way in several months. Increased economic activity often spurs the demand for money, which also tends to put upward pressure on interest rates, ceteris paribus. This too could impact bond market prices, possibly adding pressure instead to the downside.

After spending several days digesting this important fundamental news, the long bond market rallied strongly on Friday, and is now challenging key technical resistance this midweek. Resistance occurs in the $109 price area measured by the popular iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond TLT ETF. Yesterday's TLT closing price was $109.44.

Long bonds have failed to rallying past this key resistance level in four attempts since late July last year. Yesterday's positive bond market price action was critical support for bond market bulls. The long bond may now be ready to break out from this key resistance level and begin a run to the upside.

Yesterday's positive price action included upside momentum in many of the key bond market cycles followed by traders and investors. In some cycles, it also included additional upside price momentum pivoting as well. The important weekly cycle, the monthly cycle, the two-month cycle, the quarterly cycle, the annual cycle, the two-year congressional cycle, and the four-year presidential cycle are each currently projecting positive upside price momentum going forward. Holding gains above the $109 level the remainder of this week, and into next Wednesday, would be a very positive setup for the long bond.

Yesterday's strong and timely price action, and its positive directional implications for long bond market prices, especially within the popularly watched and traded quarterly cycle, are highlighted in the charts that follow.

TLT ETF 3-month Hourly OHLC Quarterly Perspective

• With Quarterly Cycle EchoVector (White)
• Bi-Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
• Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Peach)
• Tri-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Grey)
• Bi-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
• Weekly Cycle EchoVector (White)

(click to enlarge)

TLT ETF zoom of the chart above to show the 1-month hourly OHLC perspective and other weekly cycle perspectives within the current quarterly cycle of the chart.

(click to enlarge)

To view the longer annual cycle, congressional cycle, and presidential cycle perspectives, which highlight how bond prices are coming into positive price uplift periods in each, see this past Monday's article titled "Long Bond Treasury Cycles, Current Price Resistance And Fed Chairman Yellen's Comment Impact."

Kevin Wilbur

Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group

Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analyst 

                 PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.

Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.

See http://echovector.info and http://seekingalpha.com/author/kevin-wilbur

For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".

For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".

See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.

PRIOR PREMIUM POST RELEASES TO MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTERS FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF: POWERFUL SETUP AND RESULTS THIS WEEK FROM ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS ARTICLE ALERT ON TREASURY LONG BOND MARKET AND ACTIVE OTAPS-PPS ADVANCED POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: 420% GAINS ON SIMPLE APRIL CALL EV-OTAPS-PPS LEVEL 1 ACTIVE POSITION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY AND EXECUTION

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 235PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM

Critical support came in as focused today on WEV yielding strong wev and qev pivot with upside bias forward now firming -- in this key zoom inflection point area.  See article below.  Treasury long bond bulls celebrating today looking forward.

PRIOR PREMIUM POST RELEASES TO MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTERS FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

TLT ETF PREMIUM DESK RELEASE FRAMECHARTS AND GUIDEMAP UPDATES FROM MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS: WENESDAY 3/26/14 1250PM DST UPDATE: AMERICAN MARKET REGULAR HOURS UPDATE: BONDPIVOTS.COM & ETFPIVOTS.COM & DOLLARPIVOTS.COM & MARKET-PIVOTS.COM & MARKETPIVOTSONLINE.COM

tlt etf  1220 PM dst 1-week 5-minute ohlc wev perspective

1228

1246

1250

ZOOM REFRESH