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Thursday, March 27, 2014

Treasury Long Bond Bulls Celebrate Wednesday's Gains


Kevin Wilbur

Summary
  • Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen surprised the markets last week by hinting that an interest rate hike in the Fed's prime lending rate might begin sooner than expected.
  • Today was a key technical support day in the treasury long bond market in the long bond's challenge of key resistance level prices the last 1/2 year.
  • The long bond may now be off and running.

Last week Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Janet Yellen surprised the markets by hinting that an interest rate hike in the Fed's prime lending rate might begin upwards of six months sooner than many bankers and analyst had been expecting. On Friday the bond market reversed and is strongly challenging key technical resistance in the $109 price level as measured by the popularly watched Treasury Long Bond TLT ETF.  Wednesday was a key technical day in the bond market, and the long bond's challenge of this resistance price which has been in effect since late July last year. Wednesday's market action ended up providing critical support to long bond bulls, and the long bond may now be off and running.
Wednesday's price action enabled positive confirmation and/or strong positive upward price momentum pivoting to occur on the weekly, monthly, bi-monthly, quarterly, annual, and bi-annual bond cycles, particularly on an echovector price momentum indicator basis.
A visual recap of Wednesday's important watch and price level success within this week's important post-Fed Statement part of the regular quarterly cycle, and Wednesday's potentially powerful directional implications on forward price action is further illustrated in the following charts.
TLT ETF 3-MONTH HOURLY OHLC QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE
  • With Quarterly Cycle EchoVector (White)
  • Bi-Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
  • Monthly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Peach)
  • Tri-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Grey)
  • Bi-Weekly Cycle Momentum EchoVector (Yellow)
  • Weekly Cycle EchoVector (White)

  • (Click to enlarge)

TLT ETF ZOOMED 1-MONTH HOURLY OHLC QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE OF CHART ABOVE
(Click to enlarge)

To view the longer annual cycle, congressional cycle, and presidential cycle perspectives, which highlight how bond prices are coming into positive price uplift periods in each, see this past Monday's article titled "Long Bond Treasury Cycles, Current Price Resistance And Fed Chairman Yellen's Comment Impact".

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Kevin Wilbur
Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analyst 
                 PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.

Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty, and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.

For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".
For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".

See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.

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